KILDARE GENERAL, 19 May 2002: by Brian Byrne & Trish Whelan. It was a real nail-biting day at the counts in both Kildare North and South yesterday, as Alan Dukes (FG) fought Jack Wall (Lab) for the last of three seats, and in the north county Bernard Durkan (FG) had the same kind of contest with Paul Kelly (FF).
In the end, Alan Dukes lost his seat and Bernard Durkan retained his. The numbers were very close, with Wall holding on to his seat by just 187 papers, and Durkan doing the same with only 125 more than his chaser.
The overall results were a Fianna Fail gain in Kildare South, leaving the field to Sean Power (FF), Sean Ó Fearghaill (FF) and Jack Wall (Lab). In Kildare North it ended ‘as you were’ with Charlie McCreevy (FF), Emmet Stagg (Lab) and Bernard Durkan (FG).
In Kildare South, the loss of Alan Dukes, a former leader of FG and one of the ‘thinking people’ in the party simply echoed the domino collapse of Fine Gael throughout the country, but it was nevertheless devastating for his supporters.
Earlier, both Fianna Fail candidates had polled exceptionally strong first preferences, gaining between them 46.4 percent of the first preferences vote in the constituency, against the 17.8 percent for FG, 18.5% for Labour and a strong 11.9 percent PD outturn for John Dardis (a percentage exactly echoed in Kildare North by first-timer Kate Walsh).
The Green Party, its standard borne by J J Power, collected 3.7 percent.
While the FF out-turn was immediately obvious, Dukes was looking very poorly from early on, but his chances gained a quick fillip when he got the largest single proportion (1,624) of John Dardis’s transfers on the 4th count. Unfortunately for him, Jack Wall also got a good portion (1,179) and held his place ahead of Dukes through the distribution of surpluses from Sean Power and Ó Fearghaill until the end.
In the Kildare North constituency, incumbent Charlie McCreevy (FF) was elected on the first count, comfortably in excess of the quota with 836 spare votes in his 9,082. At that stage, Emmet Stagg (Lab) also looked comfortable, while Paul Kelly (FF) was already snapping at Bernard Durkan’s heels. The performance of Kate Walsh (PD) was highly creditable as a first-timer, and the high vote of Green Party candidate Ann Kelly McCormack was to later have Bernard Durkan comment that ‘there’s a lesson here for all political parties’.
With the distribution of the McCreevy surplus, Kelly was getting his teeth further into Durkan’s socks, and when Ann Kelly McCormack’s and Kate Walsh’s votes were distributed, he had actually overtaken the FG man by 41 votes. But in the same distributions, Emmet Stagg exceeded the quota, and Durkan got 684 of Stagg’s surplus against Kelly’s 508, winning back his seat.
In the round of ‘thank you’ speeches from the candidates at the end of the count, Emmet Stagg made a special plea to Charlie McCreevy to make sure that electronic voting was ‘never to be implemented’. It was a plea received with resounding cheers, indicating that no matter how the manual count draws out the tension and the trauma, it is the way most people want it.
In the final analysis in Kildare South, the above-national average vote of the two Fianna Fail candidates (46.4 percent between them) was unexpected by most observers, but showed the strength of running two experienced campaigners who had defined geographical strengths. For Fine Gael, if Dukes running mate Rainsford Hendy had put in a stronger performance than his 828 first preferences, only 506 of which transferred to Dukes, the Fine Gael first runner might have hung in there. But ‘might have’ votes don’t count, and the absence of a young local FG 'apprentice' candidate in the constituency over recent years has come home to roost.
John Dardis (PD) simply didn't get enough first preferences to give him a chance, and the way his votes distributed showed how personal was the support he did get, with more transferring to the two opposition candidates than to Fianna Fail. There are at least 4,000 people in Kildare, though, who think this thoughtful man should be in Dail Eireann. Some might think that he will throw in the towel now, but there is that resurgence of interest in the PDs to consider.
The 3.7 percent of voters who gave J J Power a green run didn't in numbers reflect the increased support for the Green Party that gave them major increases nationwide. But this genuine guy is maybe too nice for politics, which is not to say he shouldn't stay involved. Remember, many of the pooh-poohed policies of the early green days have now been picked up by the mainstream parties.
Jack Wall's first preferences performance, while solid, was 'core vote' stuff, and he was going nowhere further until he got the boost from John Dardis's transfers. Labour also needs to bring in new, maybe more radical blood.
As for the Independent candidate Gerald Fitzgibbon, we heard no more from him than posters which muttered generally about corruption. He might have done better on a direct local issue.
In Kildare North, the Fianna Fail wisdom of grooming an 'apprentice' for the past few elections, in the guise of Paul Kelly, almost worked this time out. If PD Kate Walsh's very personal vote had transferred as Fianna Fail wanted, Kelly would have been home and dry. But she gave a boost across the board, and the Stagg transfers majorly preferred retaining the existing 'club'. But it was a close call, and FG need seriously to begin grooming a younger generation of candidates in Kildare North, to build on the undeniable and deserved, but under-pressure support which Durkan enjoys (only on every second outing, though).
Again, the achievement by an out-of-constituency Green in gaining almost 2,000 first preferences without even campaigning is salutary. Emmet Stagg was the best individual beneficiary of her transfers, and so she also may have played a not-insubstantial part in Bernard Durkan's survival. Next time out will be a four-seater, and that will make the constituency everything to play for.
Below we reproduce the count details, including the percentage of 1st preference votes gained by each candidate. The * represents outgoing TDs.
